This blog is dedicated to the memory of David Weintraub, who took on insidious astroturfers and won.

Thursday, March 3, 2016

Democratic Primary Scorecard


UPDATE: The New York Times has relented and is now providing the actual delegate totals not including corrupt superdelegates. Thus, my work on this thread is done. I am stopping after Michigan/Mississippi with the verified score at Hillary 760 Bernie 546. The link to that paper's scorecard can be accessed here.

The super delegates don't count despite nearly every media outlet claiming they do.

It is too early to call the race. I am revising my odds to 60-40 in Hillary's favor. She kicked arse in the redneck states. What saved Bernie was obviously winning Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma and Vermont by healthy margins. Massachusetts in terms of the expectations game is a Bernie win especially when one adds in Bill Clinton's election fraud. This thing is far from over. We now know New Hampshire wasn't a fluke.

I will update this as the race continues.

State .......... Bernie .......... Hillary
Iowa .......... 21 ................. 23
NH ............ 15 ................... 9
Nevada ...... 15 ................. 20
SC ............. 14 ................. 39
Alabama ..... 9 .................. 44
Amr Samoa . 2 .................... 4
Colorado .... 38 ................ 28
Arkansas .... 10 ................ 22
Georgia ...... 28 ................ 72
MASS ........ 45 ................ 46
MINN ........ 46 ................ 31
Oklahoma .. 21 ................ 17
TENN ........ 23 ................ 44
Texas ......... 74 .............. 147
Vermont .... 16 .................. 0
Virginia ..... 33 ................ 62
.................. 410 .............. 608

Kansas ....... 23 ................ 10
Nebraska ...  15 ................ 10
Louisiana ... 14 ................ 37
................... 462  .............. 665
Maine .......... 15 ................   8
.................... 477 ............... 673
Mississippi .....4 .................. 29
Michigan ..... 65 .................. 58
.................... 546 ............... 760


That's the real score. The DNC is going to want Bernie to feel pressure to drop out of the race. Yet, Bernie says he is going to the convention and Hillary might have shot most of her load from the backwards states full of low info numbnuts.

I will correct any errors and add to this page as we go along. I put the odds at 60-40 for Hillary. It is hard to dispute she recently kicked ass. But so did Bernie in his own way. I was prescient. I asked donkeytale if this would play out like the old-school GOP-Democratic map. Now everyone is whistling that tune. It bodes well for a Trump win if the coronation succeeds.

If Bernie starts racking up 20 point wins in big states like New York, wins places like Ohio, this thing is going down to the wire. And it could get very interesting if the super delegates come into play. There could be riots. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. I suppose Michigan is the next barometer.

4 comments:

Lenny Fritos said...

It's interesting to note that Bernie almost won Massachusetts despite Elizabeth Warren the coward not endorsing Sanders. Meanwhile, Bill was jamming up voting lines in big precincts and campaigning in others, all clearly against the law.

Lenny Fritos said...

There's not much for polling going on. One might as well go completely with zeitgeist sniffing. Some polls have been close, but many were off the mark.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

An Oklahoma poll had Hillary by +9.

I see Clinton +11 in a Massachusetts poll.

The polls are all over the map.

Oklahoma seems conservative on the surface. I guess Bern can get the Okie vote, the blue collar people. Let's face it. Bernie has to destroy Hillary in concentrated areas such as New York, that whole Pacific west. Washington State. That's what I'm talking about. Bernie hopefully is still on that amazing trajectory and kicks Hillary's arse like what the rednecks done gone about doing. Those were painful. I am now an official sports fan of all teams from Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Colorado. Those are my people. Boston is a disgrace. The big story is how are we the people to destroy the DNC? That is the true battle. They are making it near impossible. I'm telling you, things could get ugly. Zeitgeist sniffing is akin to the meteorologists. We sniff around. Say Bernie gets any kind of win. By 50 delegates? But the super delegates get enforced? I son't think Van Jones is going to be able to deescalate things at that point.

Lenny Fritos said...

March 5th is in two days.

Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska

March 6th: Maine

March 8th: Michigan, Mississippi

March 12th: Northern Mariana Islands
March 15th: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, N. Carolina and Ohio.

There might be a debate this Sunday. Hillary is trying to run out the clock. That rarely works in sports. Bern definitely needs a new surge. A place like Michigan. Bernie needs that kind of state. Basically to win a lot of states such as Wisconsin. New York and California are obvious.

That Southeast region seems about done. It's lunacy to call the race this early for Hillary Clinton.

Lenny Fritos said...

I am a fount of crucial information.

"Democrats Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders debate in Flint: What you need to know"
http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/democratic_debate_in_flint_wha.html

Sunday Night Political Football is what it is.

Maybe Bern has been doing rope a dope. Maybe he'll unleash some magic. He's a seasoned pro. He sounds tired. I warned against this. You have to treat him like the champ. Rub him down. You need good corner work for a guy his age.

He has that telegenic advantage. Old people looking good is good karma for anyone younger. Jimmy Carter defying odds I am not sure wtf happened there, people eat that up.

Jack Lalanne. That's what I'm talking about.

Hillary is a bad case of mononucleosis waiting to happen. She coughs so much. I slammed her for barking, but I was listening to Alan Watts and he, too, was barking. I watched some Bukowski. He was a genius, but they got him on some of his bad days. Though I can supply a lot of venom meself, so I ain't one to say nothing to nobody. I'm done. And yes, the C's are right on schedule to win 48+ games. That'll be a tie for zeitgeist sniffing versus statistical fudging. Myself and 538 both said 48 wins.