Bern in Portland
The most under-reported story in Amerikkka might be that polling has become obsolete. Otherwise, why do we keep hearing that Hillary has such a big lead?
I just checked on Massachusetts. There have only been two polls. The first one had Hillary ahead by 34 points. The more recent poll from over a month ago has her lead down to 25. I simply don't believe it and here's why.
Massachusetts has a closed primary system with the exception that the Independent/Unenrolled voter can pick which party he will cast his or her vote. They make up the biggest demographic in the country. They are neither Republican or Democrat. People need to check their local state requirements. The great thing about Sanders is that everyone who likes him is going to vote his way. They are going to show up, period.
Look at question #4. 14.23% of the respondents refused to answer the question of whether they will vote. My eye sight is not what it once was or I would totally devour this topic. I don't see or can't figure out how the poll has compensated for the landline phone issue or for people who refuse to participate. One may assume that probably doesn't make much of a difference. Such a person must be God or have some kind of super powers.
Young people don't do landlines. They might register their cell phones on do not call lists.
There are not that many polls being done because they are too expensive to do well. Why would you spend a lot of money on say your kid's clothes if he or she is going to outgrow them soon? It's the same with polls. Thus, they take a lot of shortcuts. It helps polling companies that the media is still in their back pocket. However, it doesn't help us know wtf is really going on.
Right there above the poll can be considered as garbage. Look at how few young people are included compared to older voter shut ins with landlines who probably answer these polls out of loneliness. I am just speculating, but the polls aren't even speculating. They are taking a highly skewed questionnaire and presenting it as being within a few points for a margin of error.
If you heard Bernie was down 24%, it'd be easy to think, ugh, even if the poll is a bit off, that is a big lead. But when you look more closely and consider the articles I have linked elsewhere proving that polling no longer works, it makes one realise what a waste of time election coverage dependent on polling truly is.
I just googled. Apparently in 2012 there were 4,111,128 registered voters.
But, but, but the HillaryBots claim H. is ahead in Massachusetts by big numbers. She got 129 votes to Bernie's 70. That comes out to a 25% insurmountable lead. I don't think so. That's them saying that.
I've updated my acclaimed academic diagram invented a couple months ago. I've added a mathematical equation which shows that I am yet again on top of the zeitgeist.
Website 538 has stolen my analysis along with linking to the Jill Lepore New Yorker article.
That's pretty funny. One of the websites which has been up there for polling garbage is stealing the scoop which exposed lame outlets such as their own.
This guy must have gone to the Mandy Nagy School of fake journalism:
tags: minimalism. Harry Enten, corporate conspiracy, pay to play, top of zeitgeist, scoops versus fake scoops, hal turner, McCain/possum meat, Wolf Blitzer, DeRay, Triple F, uhm, i'm done.
They were called Advantage Consultants and that's conspiracy fact.
Donkeytale wonders why anyone would ever think he is a political operative. His reaction to DataGate is to spin it as tinfoil. Does the truth even matter with that kid? Is the end game to be a contrarian? If the internet is meaningless, should we perhaps just get in some kicks?
Maybe.
Paid astroturf is weird. The guy who breached the Clinton data was recommended to Bernie by the DNC and the dude just happened to work for the data company. There are other tidbits. But when you are up against contrarians, it doesn't matter that Larisa Alexandrovna had discrepancies in her Mike Connell narrative including with the mailbox. Someone would never discuss the implications of the mailbox. This was at one of those now defunct Daily Kos offshoots.
He even created the signature line, what about the mailbox?
To be honest, even I do not remember why the god damned mailbox was so important, but I do recall it was an effective scoop point.
The point is I am rarely incorrect. I do not claim to be driving the bus merely to toot some delusional horn. The paid fake or useful idiot schtick was prescient and predates anything Snowden came up with. Two words: Hal and Turner.
I busted NASA running a world wide web "conspiracy story" based on "chemtrails." I linked Mike Rivero and Tinoire to McDonnell Douglas and military intelligence respectively.
The nickname I should have had if my destiny hadn't been stolen is Scoop. If I had become an actor, I think I would have gone with the nom de plume Scoop Cunningham, maybe as some mysterious hereto before unknown second brother of Richie's. Something bad must have happened to Chuck, cuz no one's talking.
I think Sirota was another guy run off of Daily Kos.
I think she is looking to pad her individual contributor list and track more people. She is always trying to mimic Bernie.
I don't think dollar contributions are what she's after. They monetised the presidency. It's grotesque. Those Clintons. I'm flabbergasted.
There's nothing more bizarre than people knee-jerking to describing so many things as instant tinfoil. That too is grotesque. What about my due process, Mick? It is the running of interference for the status quo.
It'd be refreshing if donkeytale admitted he was wrong and that there are more paid fakes on the internet than at first assumed by regular guy internet addicts. They are everywhere. You can kind of pick them off easily. Being a troll buster is akin to working for a utility or dealing with supermarket food. There will always be a demand. The key is to expose real people and not anonymous cowards. The latter are a waste of time.
By choice I did put my sleuthing skills onto the shelf.
I feel enough research has been done. How many times can one hammer in the nail?
As a regular guy, I am bored with the presidential race at this stage. Maybe that's because at this stage the race hasn't begun. Or maybe it's because I already know that no matter what happens electorally and infotainingly-wise, little to nothing will change as a result of the ballot box. The US system is designed for slow, inexorable change with its chief feature being outright gridlock.
I want Bernie Sanders to win. Yet Bernie has not evolved. He was born into this race with a certain message and he has stuck with that message. Don't get me wong. It's a great message, the correct message for the times, a leading edge message (at least as far as Washington, DC dipshitism is concerned).
But he is not only being defined by his message, I am afraid that is what he is: a message. The Amerikkkan sheeple will not elect a message to the White House. They want a flesh and blood dynamo, particularly one who will kick ass on all those Muslim-Mexicans lurking beneath their virginal angelic white granddaughters' boudoirs.
Yes, Bernie has fallen into a dogmatic slumber. He is all message all the time. He might a well be that Lincoln robotic figure at Disneyland. You really can't tell the difference.
OTOH, the sheeple demand a better puppet show, and preferably an infotaining one.
We don't get that with the Bern. With the Bern we get all message all the time.
I still say Bernie is 50-50 for the Demotardic nomination. Nothing will change that opinion before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries take place. My colleague here states that the polls are obsolete. Maybe. Maybe not. Time will tell. What we do know for certain is that polls are meaningless at this stage. Especially national polls.
And readings of polls are clearly meaningless but some are more infotaining than others.
This one, from my favourite infotainment site, 538, is interesting and timely because it colours an internal debate raging here at DFQ2: what qualities exactly make a guy a "regular guy."
The esteemed social theorist Leonardo Doritos enjoys referring to himself (and me too on the occasions when I am not a "DLC plant" or a garden variety pedophiliac "paid fake") as a "regular guy."
Now, I am old school. I came of age in the 60s working class milieu of Southern Californiadise.
In my day a "regular guy" swung a hammer or a paint brush. He maybe mowed a rich guy's lawn or fucked the rich guy's wife while the rich guy was at work making more money than the regular guy even dreamed of earning.
Unfortunately, that was my dad doing the fucking, not me. But I learned by watching and understanding more than by hearing about his exploits from the old man.
He was a regular guy. Regular guys kept their mouths shut. I grew into one of those hippie types, peace/love/smoke-it. We definitely did not consider ourselves "regular guys."
Some of us went to college, many of us being the first in our family trees to do so. We were "smarty pants faggots" to our dads. Not regular guys. Some of us dodged the draft. We were "anonymous cowards." Not regular guys.
In our world, a guy with two masters degrees in social theory by definition could not be considered a "regular guy" no matter how hard he worked at being one.
Regular guys back in the day became the "silent generation". They took over politics in 1968 and their dear leaders were Nixon, then Reagan. Now fast forward to the present.
For all intents and purposes, blue collar unions are dead. The "silent generation" is gasping it's final breaths through ventilators and oxygen tanks strapped to their elderly behinds.
These are the Trump supporters.
Today there is no good job available unless you have a college degree and increasingly even that degree is worthless unless it is in a hard science for which "regular guys" of the Caucasoid persuasion need not apply. We are too dumb and/or wasted too much precious time infotaining ourselves and forgot to get an A in calculus.
I cheated my way through high school algebra and my science electives in college were Human Sexuality and Astronomy. Alternately, this means I had my head buried in some girl's ass or in the stars or in the stars in some girl's ass. Yes, I turned on, tuned in and dropped out. (Ed. Note - Tale eventually graduated by going to night school).
Ultimately, all experiences are unsatisfying (sayeth the preacher) but thanks for the mammaries, ladeez!
I realize this piece is a mailed-in series of Socratic-wannabe digressions hoisted atop other digressions. We are not Worthy.
The point is, or maybe it's the most vital question during this election Season in Hell: what defines a "regular guy" in the second decade of the 21st Century?
Bernie has been whining a lot lately about the media not giving himself enough attention. He's correct. So whining is probably not the right word.
David Brock is the Super PAC tool who owns or started Media Matters. He was the guy behind the "Correct the Record" smear of Bernie a few months back. That thingie backfired. A lot seems to be backfiring on the coronation committee. Nate Silver describes such phenomena as negative feedback loops. Harry Enten, on the other FiveThirtyEight.com hand, says there is nothing to see there, move along to the coronation.
I have to make this quick. There's a Celtics game coming up soon and they are desperate for a win. I will jinx them if I do not watch it.
Bernie and Hillary are now big time in the news. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is getting her ass chewed out on Twitter by supertrolls, myself included.
Bernie is fighting back. There is talk of a lawsuit. Something about a security patch and some H. info getting through to a Sanders' employee. That dude got canned or maybe I don't have my facts straight.
This is being covered by folks such as CNN who usually ignore Bernie, so I see no reason why I should be expected to write much on it. This isn't some hidden story like Clinton Foundation corruption. Ugh, I also don't seem to give much DFQ2 coverage to a lot of stuff. Yet, it's not always about me. This is about Bernie and Hillary.
I'll wait for the dust to settle. My initial conclusion from a 100% zeitgeist sniffing angle is that this helps Bernie. When the media is covering mostly just Trump and the GOP circus for political coverage, that only reinforces the idea that Bernie has no chance to win the nomination.
This is also good timing. The Democratic Party debate is on tomorrow night. Even Arianna Huffington knows that bad news is good news. It's all about page clicks. Or in this instance, it's about votes.
Hillary needed to keep it kosher with Bernie. No pun was intended, but I'm not going to deny it's there whether intended or not.
She needed their relationship to remain copacetic. She needed more, "Thanks, Bernie, my friend, with the damn email support." She needs things to be under the radar. She needs the Bernie Enough is Enough movement to stay out of mainstream Amerikkkan view.
This is what's referred to as an unforced error. The Hillary people have now given Bernie an opening.
They are idiotic and that's why those kinds of fake leftists tend to dominate the numbnut demographic.
They do not know when to quit when they are ahead. Maybe they are not ahead? If the Hillary people are 20-30 points ahead, why are they acting as if Bernie has a real chance? Why would they risk alienating the progressive keyboard commando base which constitutes a big chunk of the Democratic Party's base?
This is what zeitgeist sniffing is all about. We now know that modern polling has become obsolete in regards to accuracy. They no longer work unless one shells out a lot of money and polls by the book to ensure the respondents represent a true picture of a close approximation.
If Hillary is in such fine shape, why such worry about non-viable, kook uncle in the attic Bernie Sanders? Watch some poker on t.v.. It may all seem a crap shoot and luck, but the best card players are the best zeitgeist sniffers for their sport. Is cards a sport? They show it on ESPN the sports channel. It's very confusing.
[Update: I found another photo. I don't know when this one was taken.
What does it mean? Any guesses what she weighed in the update photo? End of update]
Hillary seems to have eaten a lot of high calorie food lately. Zeitgeist sniffing theory argues that polls have become obsolete for accuracy. Thus, one must look elsewhere for helpful clues in order to make political predictions which will enable one to be confirmed later on as prescient with gravitas.
If all was hunky-dory, she wouldn't still be packing on the pounds. I am obviously going by the eye test. She seems to be getting heavier. She doesn't look healthy. The devil's advocate will say maybe she is worried about the GOP and not necessarily Bernie.
We will know more in a week at the NH debate.
You have to sense things. You have to use Mills' sociological imagination. Social science is not the same as the hard sciences. You kind of have to get a feel for things. I don't recall if C. Wright ever used the word zeitgeist, but that is what he was talking about.
Hey, maybe Hillary's physical crumbling has nothing to do with politics and there is some serious legal heat coming down on her.
Maybe she is worried the BernBots have discovered the Clinton Foundation and all the shenanigans that the Clintons own. Hillary made $11 million in speeches to fat f*** faces last year. She and Bill basically monetised the presidency. Like I tweeted months ago, in some countries, they would have already had their heads chopped off for their fish rotting from the head down corruption schtick.
Donkeytale had the right idea saying 50-50. It has that being said circumscribed into his prediction. Every great supertroll knows that if one can slip in a "that being said," one can never be beaten at blog chess.
I am also sensing Bernie has a real chance. The Republicans got exposed by the Washington Post discussing how to broker a convention against Trump. Hillary and Wasserman Schultz have already had their asses chewed out for rigging the debates. In short, people are keeping an eye on both of them. These are hard core Democrats, not DINOs. There is a battle going on in the Republican Party and there is kinda sorta no less chaos on the leftier than thou side of the political aisle.
The limitation on zeitgeist sniffing is that while it's easy to sense that something is wrong or right, it still comes down to conjecture for what are the reasons behind zeitgeist needle movement.
Hillary obviously flipped flopped a lot to cover for Bernie being the true progressive. If she had truly felt the coronation was a 100% lock, she never would have done much of that.
Maybe the Black vote is starting to slip from her fat-knuckled grasp.
Whatever the reasons why, Hillary is not looking like a confident candidate.
We shall see.
The molasses continues to drip slowly, but this has been going on for a while now and a lot of molasses has already been spilled.
