This blog is dedicated to the memory of David Weintraub, who took on insidious astroturfers and won.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

DFQ2 projects Bernie Sanders as winner of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Bernie put on a clinic last night. His current delegate lead is 36-32. The Nevada caucus is a week from today. Technically it is Saturday as I start this laborious chore of writing. Nevada is worth 35 delegates. South Carolina is two weeks from today. It is worth 53 delegates. The big day is obviously March 1st called Super Tuesday. The delegates will be flying all over the place on that date.

The super delegates do not count. They are not set in stone. Bernie's path to the nomination is simple. He needs to beat Hillary in regards to actual votes. Moving the field goalposts is never effective. The phrase flip-flop gets applied. Hillary is backed into a corner. Younger people have just finished up high school and in college or otherwise still aware of the history they learned. No one can prove Bernie has reached a certain threshold to become the front runner, though it certainly feels that way especially after last night!

The new poll out of Nevada (pdf) has Bern vs. H. tied at 45%.

I have no clue about the polling company Target Point. I immediately see that 59% of the respondents were female. They also seem to lean towards older people. It comes down to Target Point's credibility, I suppose.


Target Point Consulting Calls Stranger At Home To Insult Him

Anyway, that's a pretty funky poll. Feel free to take a look at it for yourselves. I'm ready to move on. I still contend polling is obsolete. I'm only whining about polls because the coverage is poll driven. Now if donkeytale is correct that people are smarter than they seem, that's great news. The overwhelming rush to the ballot box by young people classified as Millennials is nothing short of a social movement.

This is why DFQ2 has decided to just say f_ _ _ it, this one is over. Bernie has this in the bag. He is a political genius. I've never seen him run for an election. I have known about him forever. People complained that he was a sheepherder. I said to have patience, that Bernie does attack. Bernie has his own style. Last night was the final proof anyone should need that Bernie is a politician who wins elections.

Think of Sanders in terms of internet fun and blog games. He knows how to play the game. He doesn't react to trolls. He lets the opponent troll himself. He lets the reader decide.

Bernie used to be the underdog in his races. That's what he was with this one. He is getting tons of money from regular people. Hillary is up the creek. Those Super PAC ads are going to have to admit at the end they were paid for by such and such. There will be no this is Hillary, I approve the ad, my b _ _ _ _ _ _.

Hillary postponed Wall Street fundraisers for after the NH primary. We shall see. If she tries to have one of those, watch and see how quickly the Progressive Army pounces on her. Bernie did this the last time. I think Hillary ended up canceling or postponing something. Bern made a tweet. I did my part by retweeting. It was democracy through Twitter in theory.

I guess this wasn't so laborious. But that's because this effort was actually mailed in. Usually when I say such and such a blog entry has been mailed in, I'm really being humble and am not gonna say damn, that's good stuff.

Harry Belafonte, man. That's what I'm talking about.

I'm sorry about John Lewis. I know he was a great guy, but he's got a few nuts and bolts clanking around inside his noggin'. Barbara Boxer? Wtf is her excuse?

How many of these DINO neoliberals know exactly what they're doing and who is some mindless automaton?

Barney Frank? Al Franken? Frank Burns?

I simply feel Bernie has this thingie won. I've felt that way for a while now. This is mystical. This is as profound as it gets.

Henry. Kissinger.

Friday, February 5, 2016

The Dark Matter of the Zeitgeist

My esteemed colleague Lenny Doritos on Twitter last night exhorted the MSNBC mods to get to the Clinton gist and as usual, he was right on target.

The DFQ2 collective prescience regarding the Demotardic Horse Race to date has been breathtaking in its accuracy. Zeitgeist Theory has once more been validated. I'm not writing off the polls as yet, for this time in Iowa they were about as historically accurate as ever, which is to say not very, but moreso than 2004 when the pre-caucus poll leader Hollerin Howard Dean fell to third and in 2008 where poll leader FFF Clinton also fell to third.

And the thought of Nate Silver "exposing himself" in any way is a mental image I could personally have done quite well without.

The polls are neither your friend nor your enemy. Ditto, the media. This constant need to find demons in the idealism and the cyncism of the whiteysphere is self-defeating because the pursuit of demons leads nowhere close to the point of destination, which for BernBots is the Little House on the Prairie of Pennsylvania Avenue. And guess what you find when you pursue "their" demons?

That's right. The mirror always wins. Yes, we are talking "projection alert" here.

Thankfully, Bernie already knows all this and his campaign tactics are not necessarily a reflection of BernBottery, just as Obama transcended the whiteysphere in 2008.  As even Fat Hillary ruefully admits, Bernie's criticisms have been "artful."

However, I would call Bernie less an artiste and more an example of enlightenment attained through long decades practicing political zazen. Bernie is as pure a zen master as we have seldom if ever seen in US politics.

There are known knowns and known unknowns but what Doritos is requesting here is information on the Hillary unknown knowns. Yes, the dark matter of the zeitgeist shall ensnare her.

Hillary is cornered by her greed. Her obesity is the dark matter of her slothfulness. One begins to imagine she is the Amerikkkan Marie Antoinette.

Ask about WalMart, exhorts Leonardo Doritos. Indeed. Ask also about the Dollar Bill Foundation. Ask and ask and ask again. Dredge up her past and current prostitution for the monied elites of the global financial worldwide conspiracy. And dredge on Dollar Bill's friendly fascist practices while we're at it, too.

If...purely for infotainment purposes, of course...you wish to toss in a few of his female-related contretemps along the private jet trail of global super wealth then why not? This too is fair play as long as it relates to the intense money grubbing.

And when is politics fair? BooHooHooMan Donald Trump and Fat Hillary the Whiner, kindly shut the fuck up.

She will fuss and fume. She will raise her hideous voice. Her defenders will scream "sexism" as we cover our ears against the grating sound of her huffing and puffing. Hillary will attack and attack and attack. Bernie can respond and launch his own effortless criticism of Triple F and hit the mark every single time because he is speaking simply and honestly, from the heart of enlightenment.

“Nothing in the world is more flexible and yielding than water. Yet when it attacks the firm and the strong, none can withstand it, because they have no way to change it. So the flexible overcome the adamant, the yielding overcome the forceful.” -Lao Tzu

Hillary Clinton is a loss waiting to happen. The more defensive she gets the...uhm....plumper a target she becomes. Let her eat cake.

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Nate Silver Exposes Himself as a Fraud

I've been waiting for this moment. The last poll has come out and Nate Silver has declared Hillary Clinton as big time favourite to win Iowa. He concedes Bernie has made it close, but that all indications from polls are Hillary has this, that the Bern surge was simply not enough; That it stalled.

There is no indication from the article that there are fundamental problems with modern day polling.

There's nothing on the weather forecast, which if true, may lead to some folks avoiding the caucus. Who would such people likely be, old Hillary supporting shut-ins who watch The View and have nothing better to do than answer some questions from obsolete polling companies? Or energetic Millennials and older hippies such as me who will deliver their votes like a mailman no matter what the weather?

Nate Silver is quite the capitalist pig with no self-awareness of how he fits snugly into the Establishment coronation strategy.

It's a matter now of counting the votes. I'm praying that Bernie wins by five to fifteen points. Maybe I have overstated the obsolete nature of polls. It just seems we are at a good moment to put statistical modeling versus zeitgeist sniffing quickly to the test, starting tomorrow.

I believe the polls are obsolete. I hope I'm proven correct tomorrow night. Otherwise, I will probably have to move the field goalposts. Bernie continues to rake in big money and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

It'd be nice for Bernie to win, but I don't think he has to, as long as he can keep it close.

I actually think he has this. That's my prediction.

Bernie at plus 5 to 10 points. I'd love to call it a landslide for Bernie. I do think that is possible. Sure, I am trying to cover all possible pro-Bernie bets including losing but keeping it close akin to Silver's guess. In that scenario, Silver spins that as a Bernie loss. I would see it as a draw and not enough of a statement either way. Wouldn't it be something if the polls are obsolete and Bernie wins Iowa by 20%? I probably just jinxed that scenario. I am actually in just win, baby mode. Yet I won't lie and deny I wouldn't mind some top of the zeitgeist action. A solid to great Bernie win could well seal my destiny as greatness. We shall see.

It's that I just don't know. I may not have a clue bigger than the eye testing political revolution, but Nate Silver also has absolutely squat, nothing. I think I have more credibility than him at this point. I truly mean that. Nate Silver deserves a chicken dance. He and the obsolete polls need to go.

(link via The New Yorker)