Nate Silver Exposes Himself as a Fraud

I've been waiting for this moment. The last poll has come out and Nate Silver has declared Hillary Clinton as big time favourite to win Iowa. He concedes Bernie has made it close, but that all indications from polls are Hillary has this, that the Bern surge was simply not enough; That it stalled.

There is no indication from the article that there are fundamental problems with modern day polling.

There's nothing on the weather forecast, which if true, may lead to some folks avoiding the caucus. Who would such people likely be, old Hillary supporting shut-ins who watch The View and have nothing better to do than answer some questions from obsolete polling companies? Or energetic Millennials and older hippies such as me who will deliver their votes like a mailman no matter what the weather?

Nate Silver is quite the capitalist pig with no self-awareness of how he fits snugly into the Establishment coronation strategy.

It's a matter now of counting the votes. I'm praying that Bernie wins by five to fifteen points. Maybe I have overstated the obsolete nature of polls. It just seems we are at a good moment to put statistical modeling versus zeitgeist sniffing quickly to the test, starting tomorrow.

I believe the polls are obsolete. I hope I'm proven correct tomorrow night. Otherwise, I will probably have to move the field goalposts. Bernie continues to rake in big money and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

It'd be nice for Bernie to win, but I don't think he has to, as long as he can keep it close.

I actually think he has this. That's my prediction.

Bernie at plus 5 to 10 points. I'd love to call it a landslide for Bernie. I do think that is possible. Sure, I am trying to cover all possible pro-Bernie bets including losing but keeping it close akin to Silver's guess. In that scenario, Silver spins that as a Bernie loss. I would see it as a draw and not enough of a statement either way. Wouldn't it be something if the polls are obsolete and Bernie wins Iowa by 20%? I probably just jinxed that scenario. I am actually in just win, baby mode. Yet I won't lie and deny I wouldn't mind some top of the zeitgeist action. A solid to great Bernie win could well seal my destiny as greatness. We shall see.

It's that I just don't know. I may not have a clue bigger than the eye testing political revolution, but Nate Silver also has absolutely squat, nothing. I think I have more credibility than him at this point. I truly mean that. Nate Silver deserves a chicken dance. He and the obsolete polls need to go.

(link via The New Yorker)

El Camino Real

Donkeytale proven wrong on Marche article

       Leonardo Doritos tried to reason with donkeytale.

This is "I told you so" 101.

You call this boring?

                           Uh-huh, my wedding cost from $3-5 million!

She married some clown from Goldman Sachs.

Bill looks like a wino. But I'm repeating myself at this point.

I will mail in the rest from Twitter. Sorry, bro, you lost this one.

                                        It's in the hole.

In conclusion, I am the winner. You are the loser.

That article is the anchor punch. I am talking Mike Tyson winning fights in the first round.

Here's the link.

The title is, "MY EDGY FORAY INTO CREATIVE NON-FICTION: On Bernie, Trump & White Privilege," by Carl Diggler.

But that's not all. We have Jacobin as backup support.

Here's the link.

And to rub salt into your contrarian wounds, here's one more:

For the Love of God, Stop Comparing Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump

Here's that link.

I finally got around to doing the eye test part of the zeitgeist sniffing project. Bernie passes. He's authentic.

Right when the election gets interesting, someone calls it boring

     (Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)

Hillary is starting to freak out. Fake polls are turning in Bernie's favor. Even Tommy Chong is feeling the bern.

This happened tonight:

It was kind of boring. I fast forwarded and skimmed through it.

The point is Hillary thinks she is about to lose Iowa and NH.

One poll has Bernie ahead in Iowa. It seemed to pay attention to age and phone method, though I think they are using internet also.

The feeling is that Bernie is winning. Something has changed.

It doesn't matter what we write or if anyone thinks it's boring. No way in hell is this boring. This is amazing.

There might be a national poll out there that has Bernie within four points. It sounds too good to be true.

I called it. And this new Bern surge shows that Bernie is advancing with the numbnut Hillary voter. No one wants to be an a__h___. That word has become synonymous with Hillary Clinton. Even Joe Biden came out strong today for Bernie Sanders and said Hillary has a lot of growing up to do or wtf about income inequality.

If Bernie is starting to compete in fake polls, that means he is farther ahead than imaginable in the real vote.

This Bernie Sanders kid has caught on. This is historic. We are experiencing historic era importance in real time. But, heck, some people find that boring.

Sucking in the Seventies

The 60s were the Classical Period. the 70s were Rococo. In the 60s a few people were smoking and getting high. In the 70s everybody smoked and nobody got high.

I think Lennon wrote that one. Nobody told me there'd be days like this.

Jagger was the 60s. Bowie was the 70s.

Both good in their own way but Bowie started out in Jagger's fan club. He was derivative not original.

Everything in the 70s that was good derived from the 60s.

Everything that sucked in the 70s also derived from the 60s too but in a bad way.