I've been waiting for this moment. The last poll has come out and Nate Silver has declared Hillary Clinton as big time favourite to win Iowa. He concedes Bernie has made it close, but that all indications from polls are Hillary has this, that the Bern surge was simply not enough; That it stalled.
There is no indication from the article that there are fundamental problems with modern day polling.
There's nothing on the weather forecast, which if true, may lead to some folks avoiding the caucus. Who would such people likely be, old Hillary supporting shut-ins who watch The View and have nothing better to do than answer some questions from obsolete polling companies? Or energetic Millennials and older hippies such as me who will deliver their votes like a mailman no matter what the weather?
Nate Silver is quite the capitalist pig with no self-awareness of how he fits snugly into the Establishment coronation strategy.
It's a matter now of counting the votes. I'm praying that Bernie wins by five to fifteen points. Maybe I have overstated the obsolete nature of polls. It just seems we are at a good moment to put statistical modeling versus zeitgeist sniffing quickly to the test, starting tomorrow.
I believe the polls are obsolete. I hope I'm proven correct tomorrow night. Otherwise, I will probably have to move the field goalposts. Bernie continues to rake in big money and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
It'd be nice for Bernie to win, but I don't think he has to, as long as he can keep it close.
I actually think he has this. That's my prediction.
Bernie at plus 5 to 10 points. I'd love to call it a landslide for Bernie. I do think that is possible. Sure, I am trying to cover all possible pro-Bernie bets including losing but keeping it close akin to Silver's guess. In that scenario, Silver spins that as a Bernie loss. I would see it as a draw and not enough of a statement either way. Wouldn't it be something if the polls are obsolete and Bernie wins Iowa by 20%? I probably just jinxed that scenario. I am actually in just win, baby mode. Yet I won't lie and deny I wouldn't mind some top of the zeitgeist action. A solid to great Bernie win could well seal my destiny as greatness. We shall see.
It's that I just don't know. I may not have a clue bigger than the eye testing political revolution, but Nate Silver also has absolutely squat, nothing. I think I have more credibility than him at this point. I truly mean that. Nate Silver deserves a chicken dance. He and the obsolete polls need to go.
(link via The New Yorker)
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