The DFQ2 collective prescience regarding the Demotardic Horse Race to date has been breathtaking in its accuracy. Zeitgeist Theory has once more been validated. I'm not writing off the polls as yet, for this time in Iowa they were about as historically accurate as ever, which is to say not very, but moreso than 2004 when the pre-caucus poll leader Hollerin Howard Dean fell to third and in 2008 where poll leader FFF Clinton also fell to third.
And the thought of Nate Silver "exposing himself" in any way is a mental image I could personally have done quite well without.
The polls are neither your friend nor your enemy. Ditto, the media. This constant need to find demons in the idealism and the cyncism of the whiteysphere is self-defeating because the pursuit of demons leads nowhere close to the point of destination, which for BernBots is the Little House on the Prairie of Pennsylvania Avenue. And guess what you find when you pursue "their" demons?
That's right. The mirror always wins. Yes, we are talking "projection alert" here.
Thankfully, Bernie already knows all this and his campaign tactics are not necessarily a reflection of BernBottery, just as Obama transcended the whiteysphere in 2008. As even Fat Hillary ruefully admits, Bernie's criticisms have been "artful."
However, I would call Bernie less an artiste and more an example of enlightenment attained through long decades practicing political zazen. Bernie is as pure a zen master as we have seldom if ever seen in US politics.
There are known knowns and known unknowns but what Doritos is requesting here is information on the Hillary unknown knowns. Yes, the dark matter of the zeitgeist shall ensnare her.
Hillary is cornered by her greed. Her obesity is the dark matter of her slothfulness. One begins to imagine she is the Amerikkkan Marie Antoinette.
Ask about WalMart, exhorts Leonardo Doritos. Indeed. Ask also about the Dollar Bill Foundation. Ask and ask and ask again. Dredge up her past and current prostitution for the monied elites of the global financial worldwide conspiracy. And dredge on Dollar Bill's friendly fascist practices while we're at it, too.
If...purely for infotainment purposes, of course...you wish to toss in a few of his female-related contretemps along the private jet trail of global super wealth then why not? This too is fair play as long as it relates to the intense money grubbing.
And when is politics fair? BooHooHooMan Donald Trump and Fat Hillary the Whiner, kindly shut the fuck up.
She will fuss and fume. She will raise her hideous voice. Her defenders will scream "sexism" as we cover our ears against the grating sound of her huffing and puffing. Hillary will attack and attack and attack. Bernie can respond and launch his own effortless criticism of Triple F and hit the mark every single time because he is speaking simply and honestly, from the heart of enlightenment.
“Nothing in the world is more flexible and yielding than water. Yet when it attacks the firm and the strong, none can withstand it, because they have no way to change it. So the flexible overcome the adamant, the yielding overcome the forceful.” -Lao Tzu
Hillary Clinton is a loss waiting to happen. The more defensive she gets the...uhm....plumper a target she becomes. Let her eat cake.
62 comments:
No, I did not watch the debate but I boned up on the 538 Snatch chat and the Doritos live twitter (after the fact).
The race is right where I predicted. 50/50.
There is a clear path opening for Bernie and feels like he is pursuing it with exquisite design and timing.
Bernie is the man.
And so are you.
I'm done
Thanks for the entry. I was afraid you had decided to take a full year off until the inauguration.
I suppose Twitter is a bit like Daily Kos used to be; its relevance spruces up during election seasons or whenever something viral must be attended to.
I was wrong that we'd get some answers from Iowa in regards to polling. There is no raw voter data. Of course such data wouldn't change the delegate count, but it would help with comparing actual votes to polls. It would also speak to the question of viability. It would speak to a zeitgeist with apparently a part of it not ready to take the Bernie plunge due to old ways of viewing politics.
New Hampshire will give us no such problem. We will be able to look at raw totals and compare them to the polls.
If Bernie won the popular vote in Iowa by 20%, that would have put a dent into the 538 model, imho. But now we will never know. We only know that Iowa needs a makeover.
I think what you're saying is that for all our complaints about the internet, all the little to big nobodies, from us to Jeanette to Ben and indeed all the BernBots add up to not letting Hillary get away with old-school political strategies.
I think the Sirota articles have been important. Many of us do not trust Greenwald and especially Omidyar, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and Bernie needs the Snowden vote.
What if Hillary had just stayed the course?
Say instead of shoving into everyone's face that the Black vote is in her back pocket, she let it alone? Who wants to feel like they are in anyone's back pocket?
We can't be expected to read everything, watch everything, etc. and push through ideas in an attempt to reach zeitgeist greatness levels.
I appreciate your entry and not because you were kind to me. Although I am human and who doesn't like a good love siren?
I appreciate it because it is about Zen and awareness.
We are merely two random nobodies who emerged a little bit out the BubbleBoy Freak Society age referred to as the blogosphere or social media.
But yes, all those little things Hillary has coldly calculated should be known. You call them unknown knowns. Like if I was a Black man, no way in heck would I vote for H. after she said something about working people being whites. It's on tape. Jeanette was brilliant collating that kind of stuff.
I was curious if Hillary has been fake raising her voice to sound like Bernie. A friend agreed. She is also found on tape saying a million other weird things.
Yes, Bernie's smears are actually simply stating facts along with his opinion that people collecting millions from fat cats can't possibly not be influenced.
I think Hillary messed up yet again on the big stage. I think she was protected by CNN the previous night. And having Rachel Maddow on last night as one of the moderators certainly helped Bernie.
You were prescient. You called it 50-50 if Bern could get it done in the initial, lily-white voting areas.
You were prescient to say forget about polls and look to the zeitgeist.
Bernie definitely looks a lot more relaxed since the race's image has shifted closer to a 50-50 scenario.
As a random nobody, I am able to enjoy this election season beyond a bottom line of Bernie or Bust.
So, I do think of the weird things. I do let my imagination go where it must. I thought what Hillary did last night was extra weird, weirder than anything I've ever said or done.
She tried to spin Bernie as a dirty politician who smears. She even used the phrase, "correct the record." That's quite surreal considering one of her seedy Super PACS is called Correct the Record.
Yes, I did get a lot right with this election. I suppose the best thing I came up with was saying Bern is not a sheep herder and he is attacking Hillary but with his own formula.
I am kind of rambling. I wanted to say thank you for writing the new blog entry.
No, Jeanette is awesome, especially her look. Sorry if that is sexist however I like to look at women. Sue me.
I hope the real Jeanette looks like that. Sometimes I imagine all the hot female avatars are actually creepy dudes who get off on loosers like me admiring their "pictures."
The internets is what it is/isn't what it is/is what it isn't.
Did I leave anything out?
Mostly. I badly needed a break from my own repetition. I'm not truly back but I will keep my hand in so this place doesn't fall off the map/ I wake up at night wondering about the Russians. I'm going through a dense period of high work activity also which makes it difficult to spend enough time to produce the kind of high quality mailed-in entries our readers have come to expect.
I really did grow bored with the schtick. Not the election itself or the social dynamics, just the schtick. I understood where you were going too and approve of the direction but felt like my standard issue stuff was a bad fit like oil and water.
I can't help but be overly critical at all time of everything. It is y blessing and my curse.
Dixon is greatness. I mean he should be on TV but that would be selling out and maybe he wouldn't work that well in a new format, sorta like Colbert selling out into Late Night network TV.
But that man has some intellectual chops and he handles the role impressively in all phases of the game/
As do you yourself and I.
Wow it already is 50-50 even before NH.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2321
I too am trying to pace myself. Tonight we are looking at Boston at Cleveland. That to me will be a well earned escape from all the madness.
No one needs to blog anything. It is about Zen.
The zeitgeist dark matter is always lurking.
Assange had a good day.
I might write something on Media Matters. Something like that. Today is the first day in months I haven't googled news Bernie and Hillary. I'm spent. Maybe coffee can solve this.
I might not write on Media Matters. I'm just thinking out loud. I have this idea that they are posing as journalism when they are in actuality a political operative rag.
I didn't mean you didn't like Jeanette. I meant we talk down the medium in general sort of similar to McLuhan. If the internet is propelling us into a new kind of presidency and social movement, then we were perhaps a tad cynical of the power of this doohickey whatchamacallit.
I know what you mean about needing the time to write, you know, if you kinda sorta have expectations it will be good. Showing some pride.
In the comments I suppose there is less pressure, although there certainly has to be at least two people in here or I wouldn't comment in this space at all.
McLuhan. I know I repeat myself. It's really tru what he said how the past tells us the future.
I was listening to a clip from Eisenhower's final address. He nailed it about the Military-Industrial Complex. He was very prescient. Bernie is a genius. He mentions Eisenhower. There is a method to his brilliance. He made that cameo at the wingnut university. He never apologises! Shit like that.
People say Hillary was trying to get Bernie angry. It's true. She wants to drag him into some old-school mud. I don't think she got the memo that there is a rear view mirror.
I can only see what's in front of my two feet... and I imagine that has a lot to do with coffee and the Boston Celtics.
I'm planning on an excellent Spring and Summer if the Bernie Revolution comes to fruition. This is still the heart of Winter. It's a form of blogging hibernation. A partial one. I definitely need a breather from Twitter.
I am writing while the above post in the medium with its context refers to coffee which I am be here right now drinking. The past tells the future. Or maybe McLuhan meant it also tells us the present, since that is also part of the future. Everything is actually the past. You can't hold onto any one moment. Elvis tried. He spoke of memories.
McLuhan also said he likes to put people on.
No one is saying we are McLuhan or Alan Watts. I think what's going on is that at some point even those guys were saying they are not McLuhan and Watts.
Stellar win for the Celts last night. They may make it to 48-50 before this thing is over, thus adding more applause lines to your greatness....and 538 who also predicted 48.
I disagree somewhat. We are McLuhan and Watts, although to be fair I'm probably closer to being Charlie Watts. But the fact is, we have absorbed, internalized and brooded over these schticks before subconsciously tailoring those elements that appeal most to us within our own schticks.
It is very Freudian in fact. Freud still stands above all the rest as far as I'm concerned, in the rarified realm that also includes Gautama, the mythological Jesus, Marx, Fred Nietschze and Stu Piddy.
Bernie is now knock knock knockin on their door.
Everything is the past...this is true. Another way of stating the same concept in Buddhist terms is everything is transitory, or there is no there there as Gertrude Stein said about Oakland. That of course was before Steph Curry landed in town.
Come to think of it, Curry may in fact be the reincarnation of Buddha. "Curry" is an Indian dish. Steph is both a male and female name. He looks rather androgynous for a professional baller. There is that element too, which is more Hinduistic but Buddha was born Hindu. It's quite possible, and if GS wins another title and go something like 74-8 I'm gonna shout it from the rooftops.
Basketball Buddha!
But I digress.
The Iowa polls were more predictably "off" on the GOP side. I know. I know. There was voter fraud on the Demotardic side. Maybe we should set up a website and gather donations to fight the fraud. Name it Velvet Underground Revolution.
Rubio now seems like a virtual lock for the nomination. He is definitely transitory himself, as has been noted a Clintonesque individual but certainly the best of a bad lot for the Republikkkans. My son who is a political junkie and libertarian has been proclaiming Rubio as the winner all along. So we shall see if prescience is indeed a hereditary trait.....he's been arguing with me about Bernie but is starting to come around especially after I texted him the link to the Quinnipiac poll. He retorted it was an outlier poll but this is because he hasn't yet learned about Zeitgeist Theory. ZT cannot be taught, it must be experienced and absorbed in the individual.
Sure, I told him, it could be an outlier. Change is always an outlier. Status quo is predictable. Watch and learn, my young son.
He could pose some challenges
....and he will, being that youth is all about challenging the old timers. And I'm OK with that. Mindless agreement is always and everywhere the enemy.
As Doritos frequently expresses, awareness is all. Without awareness life itself is impossible.
One might as well be a cockroach in Kafka's penal colony.
I reread your entry. It is even better the second time. You nailed it. Writing is both easy and difficult. It's like the Incredible Hulk. Don't make me angry. You won't like me when I'm angry. All that expanded energy had to take its toll on the fella. Everyone talks about Mr. Hyde, but few cared about esteemed Dr. Jeckyll. Or Clark Kent. Or maybe that's different.
The point is the ptb's know that writing is difficult and they will throw up dirt around home plate if we are about to make the umpire call.
It's not that H. as paid fake is hidden knowledge. Heck, over half the country knew Ronald Reagan was a d_ _ _h_ _ _ in real time.
The neoliberals pushed us out of politics for a very long time talking decades.
The Republicans became such a known known assortment of clowns and loooosers that the fake left moved into the political space.
George McGovern is from another time and another place?
I cannot believe how many people are full of it. Howard Dean. I just learned of two Washington Post "journo" names shilling for Hillary. One of them has been a "senior research fellow" at Media Matters, David Brock's rag.
I am extremely interested in psychology, or more specifically, social-psychology.
Look at BradBlog and my personal experience with the electoral fraud schtick. On the surface it made sense. We tend to believe what we want to hear. We take our foot off the peddle and accept that someone is our fren, when they are actually the Wizard of Odd behind the curtain.
I've got more to say. I always do. But I first must roll some cigarettes and refresh me coffee, laddie.
Yes, awareness is everything. Not only that, and perhaps even more important, we must be aware of what is presented as real which i snot.
I probably overwhelmed you by the end of the last few months. That is perhaps the problem with us lounging around too much in DFQ2's comment section.
I'll get the basketball out of the way. Yes, that was a great win for the C's. It was like a bad movie that somehow became greatness due to the ending.
Cleveland is fascinating with LeBron. It seems he had the coach fired. His new coach used to be Doc Rivers' assistant on the Celtics. I'm sure Ty Lue is a great guy, but I doubt he has the resume justifying a head coach position.
That isn't racist. I think the same with Jason Kidd, a pasty white man given too much power, too soon, in his post playing career.
Golden State is great. I understand your admiration. They are extremely lucky San Antonio is starting to slow down and more reflect their age.
I am not ageist. It is what it is. Basketball is a young man's game. The only reason it seems otherwise is because as we have agreed on, the youngins coming out of college are too raw and equate to crap shoots.
Cleveland could have been a true challenger to GS, but I doubt it now.
GS could three-peat. That being said? I am not ready to coronate them as about to go on a Boston Celtics 60's styled domination run. Michael Jordan won six titles. I don't think they'll even approach that. And LeBron, he is approaching his decline. He also made matters worse by blackmailing the Cav's ownership. Do what I say or I leave again?
Golden State is Larry Holmes. They are proven champions, but it is hard to know how great they truly are when there's not much greatness elsewhere in regards to team play. San Antonio is getting old. The Celtics are too young. The Clippers, Rockets, Grizzlies, Hawks, Oklahoma - all these teams fiddle and diddle year after year disappointing their fans.
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A few weeks ago I watched some more McLuhan at Youtube. I haven't listened to Alan Watts since the reincarnation blogging phase. Marshall was a regular guy. He wasn't polished, though he certainly improved on his telegenic qualities the more he got face time in the medium. One thing that stood out was when he admitted to an Australian audience that he likes to put people on.
There's actually a whole branch of Sociology called (I forget what it's called, sorry) which deliberately tries to shock subjects and then study their reactions.
I never really got the point of that. But overall, there is something called conformity. Altemeyer coined the phrase, authoritarian personality disorder. All the great artists and thinkers have always warned the peanut gallery masses to wtfu.
Maybe McLuhan simply didn't want to be circumscribed into part and parcel of a sleepy universal consciousness. He was perhaps attempting to catapult anti-propaganda. I think he was a form of Bernie. He was trying to articulate that this wasn't about him, but us. I don't mean the united states. I mean us. I don't mean you and I the two random nobodies, I mean the collective we. I don't mean listen to what I say, bow to my greatness, and repeat it. That's Bernie. He says it's about us, not me. I mean him, not me. Him saying me. I mean he referring to himself as me, not the proverbial moi.
It might be called Epistemology. I've been out of academia for almost one and a half decades.
The Iowa polls are meaningless unless we can see raw vote totals. If a million students showed up at a few precincts, the same number of delegates were awarded. The popular vote is nowhere to be found in the Iowa results. Without the popular vote results, how are we to judge the Iowa polls with the Iowa results?
Yes, I too look clever by pointing to Rubio based on both of your major teachings in regards to zeitgeist and telegenic theory.
Cruz looks too much like Grandpa Munster. He emits a TeaNut persona. Trump is Trump, great entertainment, but probably not someone even the wingnuts truly believe in. In a better world, Jim Webb would have been the GOP choice with Bernie coming out of the Democratic Party.
That is the evil and gridlock triangulation has wrought on a society deep down craving for regular guy social and environmental justice.
Our schtick is good. I have no problem being relegated to the mom's basement of the world wide web. I see us as an updated Laurel and Hardy, or in my more pretentious moments, those two clowns from Waiting for Godot.
We are so deadpan that it isn't even funny unless you get the joke in advance. And if you got the joke in advance wtf are you doing here reading this Shiite?
Because it is real. Like Dixon. I mean he's awesome but where does he work, his bedroom, right. LOL. I can see his wife by herself sitting out there in the living room shaking her head slowly back and forth while he's back there cranking out high quality work on a nightly basis.
Of course, I have no idea whether that is happening to Dixon and I hope it is not but the fact is scenes similar to that one I conjured in my mind play out every millisecond of every day in every corner of the earth and that same scene has been playing a long, long, long time, like since man first figured out what to do with that thingie between his legs. Well, before he could think and choose a different existence for himself if he so desired.
[projection alert] [irony alert]
What I would like to see is Russell or pre-injury Walton lace em up with the Warriors in place of Bogut.
Russell especially. The Warriors style owes a lot to Russell, especially the inside game. And Walton was a taller version of Russell with a better post up game. Russell was more dominant defensively and it was even on the boards but Walton was better on the offensive end, far better. The offense went through him and he was greatness in the high post, and also effective low.
But he only did it at the highest level for a year and a half.
That's the fear with Curry and the Warriors. Injury. But here is the thing. The Celts stayed at the top because they had Basketball Buddha and 1-2 transcendent talents whose level his game raised. Then you had the spare players whose games were also raised by the those talents and the expert coaching of a style no one else was playing. The Celts had little competition either when you come down to it. They were just dominant. Russell and really none of them got hurt. They replaced the players who aged out.
So yes and no. I agree GS could be one and done. I respect that as a homer you do not wish to see another team reach 1960's Celtics heights.
But this is GS team is playing at a very high level indeed. The argument about eras at the end of the day is meaningless. You can only play the teams in your era. There were tons of bad teams during the Celtics run too.
It depends. I mean, you or Ben could talk to the better half and explain that they are being creative. They are not wasting their time on the net. They should be happy you guys are such smarty pants you can write up instant masterpieces or put on a fricken high quality radio show where you see the guy. You know what I mean.
We are the Cornel West, wink wink guilty meta-tainment.
Just think of all the names we drop. Sure, others name drop? The difference is we actually try to flesh it out.
Maybe sentences get too fragmented and we start to feel bad about typos or hazy writing.
that probably wasn't my best stuff."
You and Ben have to stand strong like O'Malley said to his delegates. It doesn't necessarily have to be meaningful. Come up with anything.
I don't see what the problem is? Yeah, TLNL used the question mark. I really wanted to use it, too. Sometimes I forget to use question marks and it rattles me inside.
Oh, Rubio. Oh, and DeRay is running for mayor.
That's about all I got.
Knock on wood Bernie batters Hillary. That would help a lot.
All I'm saying to Nate is don't act like nothing change and you guys make it worse by ignoring the development. Maybe they are holding on to their bet a little longer just in case Hillary gets a cupcake coronation procedural.
You're telling me these significant others aren't wasting time with whatever they're doing?
I wish I wrote more, not less.
Hey, I tweeted Tommy Chong.
GS might break the Bulls regular season record. They raise the stakes by doing that. Ask the Patriots. That one pissed me off all those old Dolphin players acting indignant as if the Patriots' historic undefeated run wasn't as good as theirs. They should have been gracious. I was actually not mad at them. It was cringeworthy. Like RUBIO! I couldn't care less about the debate tonight, but I couldn't miss paid fake politician get busted. I am very prescient. I talked a lot about The Candidate. And Rubio - what he did was surreal, repeating the same line four times. Christie might have hit a triple into the corner. Christie is sort of normal if you accept a Republican as not an absolute nightmare. Hasich. Hillary would be worse than those two. I have given up on the DNC and blue dogs. I think they have to be let go. I mean we can still caucus with them, but progressives and people of color must come together. I mean progressives. Not this fake Hillary crap. It might be hyperbole, but she is a robber baron. It's disgusting. The Jeanettes of the world made sure of this political death spiral.
Meanwhile Nate Silver and Enten, oh me blood is boiling, but not really.
I want a 40 point Bernie win.
I heard Bernie is within 11 in Alabama. I should fact check that. Hey, I saw Texas is an open primary, so all those Snowden/Paul votes could vote for Bernie. Texas has Millennials. But to 538, the Black vote is in Hillary's back pocket and she has a million super delegates.
If Bernie can somehow win states like Alabama, all bets are off?
Got any polls from Texas? It's a mysterious Zen ride. I cannot guarantee Bernie wins. Or maybe I believe he has this, it's over, but who wants to be the BernieBroBot who jinxes it?
It's like the third inning for hoops. Let's see what happens at the trade deadline. Right now it looks like a repeat. You called it. San Antonio? Maybe. Cleveland? I predict they get chaotic. They might not even get out of the Eastern Conference.
Even though GS is the odds on favourite, Cleveland is the real story because everyone loves schadenfreude. Like with Rubio. Haha!
I jinxed Rubio. I don't want to jinx Bernie who I worship as historic greatness in real incarnation time. Yeah, he's a regular guy. Don't take me the wrong way. He is not perfect. But he is close to perfect compared to everyone else.
In my first post I flubbed the writing, otherwise it would have been good. I would have more pride right now. Though this is just comments. It's a lesser standard of blogging. It's the green room for the fancy entries we humbly offer witticisms and whatnot below.
you or Ben could talk to the better half and explain that they are being creative. They are not wasting their time on the net.
should read
you or Ben could talk to your better half and explain that you're being creative. Ur not just wasting time on the net.
then blah blah McLuhan. Show passion. Don't be fricken Hugh Beaumont.
You're thinking of Jordan Mickey, a rookie with the Celtics plaing in the D League. He is a mini-Bill Russell, just a bit shorter. I think he led college ball in block shots. He's the perfect small ball center. But he's young. He got a rare guaranteed contract as a second round pick. Dallas should be okay, but it is not as easy to rebuild as it used to be. The draft picks are a total crap shoot after the first one or two, and even they won't guarantee you a transcendent player.
I think the Celtics will revolutionise the league. They are stretching out the value of a roster. It is much better than the one he turned into KG and Ray.
The salary cap is set to expand.
Everyone's praying for Brooklyn to slide to the bottom for three years. He also won some other trades. People think the rest of the league is wary of trading with him. Isn't that insane as in great for Danny Ainge? People who hate Ainge must be raging on the inside. As a Celtics fan, I can only lick my chops and daydream.
three straight years of Brooklyn's #1. Right now they are #3 in tankathon. The C's are going for the #3 seed in their conference while seeming assured of receiving a top five pick and who knows what the ensuing two years.
that was a sick trade. and i contend ainge waited too long. i can't believe how he ripped off Brooklyn, all just to take Gerald Wallace for three years at 30 million. i'm done.
Dan Hicks, RIP.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/08/arts/music/dan-hicks-bandleader-of-the-hot-licks-dies-at-74.html?hpw&rref=obituaries&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0
“I will always be humble to my dying day,” Mr. Hicks, tongue in cheek as usual, said when interviewed in 2013 by Roberta Donnay of the Hot Licks. “On my dying day I will explain to the world how lucky they have been to be alive the same time as me.”
If I could rewrite all of what I dropped my last time, I would. What a mess.
I don't know this Dan Hicks dude, but he sounds like greatness.
I was just on Twitter. After tweeting some Democratic operatives from Ohio busted for creating sock puppets on Twitter, I got shut down by Twitter, something about sorry BroBot, we have internal server issues as plausible deniability.
Steinem is CIA. Did you know that? It's on tape. She admitted to working for them for four years. And Madeleine Albright also tried to help Hillary and that backfired as well.
Massachusetts is very contaminated by HillaryBots at the highest levels of state government. If Bernie can win my state, that could be the domino as I predicted.
It would be quite weird if Bernie wins Texas and not Massachusetts. Then things will be proven as upside-down and out of prognostication reach of both zeitgeist and poll sniffers.
There is a new poll out of NH that makes tomorrow look like it's shaping up into a major landslide.
Harry Enten/538 put the expectations point spread at 15%. He probably stretched it from 10% to give himself some more plausible deniability room.
Texas might be like NH. The cynical person says blah blah coronation, life sucks... it's all rigged. But who knows? Texas seems to have a "live free or die" mentality. It has techies/Snowdens. It has its Millennials.
This couldn't be going better.
A few days ago I blurted out 30% as my prediction. Now I am not so sure. I think Bernie could win by 40+%. But then again, even though the Red Sox destroyed the curse, I still have scars from following that team. I always expect the worst. So Bernie will probably win NH by eight or less points and Hillary will be proclaimed as comeback kid.
This election is fun, period. This is pinch me, is this true time. I wonder about the losers from FireDogLake who adore Jill Stein. Are they feeling the bern? Or your buddy fairleft. What about Lord Byron? Is he so cynical he is in Chris Hedges Bern sucks and I'll never support him mode? I guess Noom is torn. Hillary is pro-Israel domination, but Bern actually has authentic chosen blood. Though as a secular humanist, progressive socialist democrat, Bern has plausible deniability. Maybe Noom's pops died in the Holocaust. He seemed a bit too fixated.
What about LauraJohn, our previous handler? Is she feeling the Bern?
Chomsky feels the Bern. He's a debbie downer for odds making, but the feeling is still there.
Too bad Dave Weintraub (DFQ) isn't still with us. It would have been fascinating to watch him ply his political blogging craft during this specific cycle.
I agree with your implication we are very lucky to be alive for all this stuff. This zeitgeist dark matter has always been there, yet decade after decade, society got more cynical and apathetic.
Let us know if and when you update your odds. You say 50-50. I suppose you are waiting for Super Tuesday. That one should provide mucho answers, although NH, Nevada, and SC results should be fascinating in their own ways. It's finally happening, man. No more silly season. Hillary continues to freak out in front of everyone. Bernie continues to be as cool as a cucumber. This couldn't be going any better. The only thing that might have been a setback is we don't know the final tally in Iowa. If he won by 20%, blah blah....
Mostly I want Bernie to continue surging for the infotainment Bern as winner will compel out of 538 for an explanation.
I am talking chicken dances and major league taunting. I want to see 538 cry.
Back in the day of his popularity I actually lived in SF for a couple years on and off with some friends.
Hicks was listed in the Yellow Pages under "Bar Fixtures". LOL
His schtick was an acquired taste but some of it was very, very good. And it was unique for the era.
My guess is that LJ and Fairleft both are too far fake left to buy into Bernie. Byron of course wants a communist revolution so it's doubtful Bernie is left enough for his tastes.
I did know Steinem was a spook.
If Bernie wins big in NH as expected and outperforms in Nevada and SC it may be time to update.
The traditional liberal bastion states that also have ample minority populations will be the deal maker/breakers as far as I can tell. Mass, Cali, Colo, Washington/Oregon, upper Midwest states, Pa, etc.
I think miss the point of 538. They continue to update and refine and this is already happening. They will be wrong if the polls are wrong, especially the ones they weight for past performance. To date, which is only Iowa, the polls haven't been very wrong.
Dude, I don't think you understand that no one knows the raw vote totals in Iowa. Their system has become a laughingstock and disgrace to the word accountability.
But if you want to say the polls were close to the actual vote count, continue right ahead. I will thank you for this every day of the week.
Iowa is a joke. The only number you have is a percentage of delegates. It's got nothing to do with actual votes.
Are you following that? Or are you going to keep saying the polls got Iowa correct?
No, they didn't. There's good reason to believe Bernie dominated Iowa.
But the rules have it that vote numbers don't matter as much as precincts. Each precinct had a set worth. You could get 15 hundred million Millennials at the same precinct, it wouldn't have budged that .3 or .2 percent so-called deficit to WINNER OF IOWA HILLARY CLINTON.
Now do you understand?
Dude, man, hopefully we will able to prove tomorrow that the NH polls are total garbage. Then there will be a chicken dance over 538's rotting gravitas.
I can't believe you stick up for them as if they cut you a check.
Bernie got 90% or wtf of the youth vote in Iowa. Women are feeling the Bern to such a point that Steinem tried some psyops. I guess there is no retirement age for CIA agents. Albright might as well have called them Nazis. She says there's a special place in hell for women who don't vote for Clinton.
Okay, maybe if a billion students showed up at one precinct, it would have budged the final total for Bernie. But that's the point. Students were even asked to please vote in their home precincts to spread out the win. It is not one person, one vote in Iowa. There are other problems with their system too.
I agree with you about the states you mentioned as pivotal. They have a traditional base of DINOs. Like Massachusetts with Barney Frank.
But Massachusetts also has a lot of students.
It is basically one of those states that on paper Bernie should have good odds, but somehow through disputed polls it has been given to Hillary through the coronation assumption.
The field goalposts continue to shift. Before it was Bernie might win one or two lily-white states to go with Vermont. You even said there was a new poll saying it is a virtual tie nationally.
So where is 538's analysis of that?
I'm done. I'm not yelling or upset. I just think you're completely wrong.
Even the biggest losers on cable t.v. are admitting this race is no longer a coronation. However, 538 is still holding their ground. No one likes to admit they are overrated hacks working for a magazine that should be shuttered.
Your comments were good. Hopefully at some point your work settles down or you get the gumption to produce a Politico/Vox type article. I have tried but am too goofy and prone to self-indulgent digressions.
It's all about learning a language. That's why there are 101 courses.
You know the language and I don't. Perhaps that is where we clash. I understand the dark matter, the society. Not that you don't, but you've been trained in the political arts. I didn't go to Daily Kos and think wow, this is political.
It is about Zen.
Here's my ultimate take. Young people are always up for some protests. Somehow voting for Bernie has become a form of protest in itself.
There are a lot of angles to this.
For me, I like the schadenfreude. I have enjoyed getting into Hillary's face and those of all the neoliberals and gauging their reactions. I referred to the word "tell" from poker.
It may seem I am trying to do a personal as political schtick, and sure, I have some of that au naturale leftier than thou energy.
But I'd go nuts if that was all life is, personal as political. My social anxiety probably wouldn't help.
I tried anyway. I've explained my trajectory. I was supposed to be a teacher. Now I am just some random nobody who enjoys writing.
I am also a lazy writer. I am a nihilist writer. I no longer seem to see the point. Yet, I still cannot stop. It's not a diarrhea of the mouth. I doubt that. It's not that I just say anything. Or at least I use those moments of free form in an attempt to keep things light, free, and groovy.
No offense taken, mon. We have differing perspectives that's all. We're feeling the bern but you are inhabiting the space while I check in and out from time to time. I don't have much more to say on the matter and when I do I'll find time to say it.
If you will notice I said the polls were not very wrong. This means also they weren't right. Who cares? Dude, I see 538 has Bernie at a greater than 99% chance of winning NH. What else needs be said? They are arriving at the same conclusion we did months after the fact. If we blame people for not being as prescient as us
The election conspiracy theories are extremely boring. Maybe if you wrote it up in your normal style which I find to be great infotainment value as is, I will get into it.
Is the Bernie campaign concerned? They had operatives at every precinct I would imagine and if there was hanky panky going on they're responsible for outing it.
Or maybe BradBlog was on the scene. LOL. Does that blog even exist anymore?
I meant to say if we blame people for not being as prescient as we are then there would be very very few people we could elate to in a positive manner.
And I'm fighting my own negative nature enough as it is to start going off on the world all the time.
That would be a downward spiral.
I agree the caucus schtick is stupid. It is a tradition but some traditions are so outdated they need to be reired.
Good points. If Bernie versus Hillary equates to smoking weed, I am Tommy Chong and you are saying maybe I can have a puff or two after work or on the weekend.
Negative energy.... Yes! I agree. It is quite easy to go negative for the same reason telling the truth are not artful smears.
I think one of the lessons I learned as a little runt child was the Holocaust. That is something African Americans and Jewish people share. From the get-go, we learn some harsh truths.
Jewish people, though, are like everyone else. Good and bad. Shallow and deep. Religious versus more of a regular guy Yank. Yankee I mean, nothing to do with baseball.
I am trying to avoid the negative stuff with my election coverage, but it's impossible. Clinton and all her surrogates have gone over the top nasty. The internet is a relatively new phenomenon. We can certainly extrapolate in the past and how things evolved electronically/medium wise.
One thing I learned from Sociology is the word modernity. I am not a snob. Just saying. People do need a decent education. It should be possible for folks to learn everything they need in four years of high school. So I keep my eye open for the things that interest me, same as anyone else.
We are entering surreal, infotainment territory. Madeleine Albright. Bill Clinton is a complete mess. Chelsea exposed herself as rich sycophant dumbass oligarchy princess. The media and 538 look stupid over many months.
I am saying now is the time to seize the zeitgeist from the ptb's everywhere. That includes both the voting booth and the internet as social media.
I think it can happen.
Yes, I'd like to just admit I am a kook and go back to my old style. I found something yesterday on Ohio politics. Some lady politician or operative cc'ed something when it needed to only go to a couple numbnuts. It's paid fakes being exposed talking about fake usernames on Twitter. Real names. Not dumbass anonymous usernames.
Yes, I will try to write entries rather than overload this comment section. We will evolve.
Don't be sad, my friend.
I equate negativity to sadness.
I battle this everyday. There is never an end to what can be ranted on.
I suppose I am to BradBlog as Bernie is to Hillary. Goliath lost to David. Isaiah Thomas made the all-star team. I hope Bernie wins by 40%. At least 10-20% would obviously seem very good.
The C's are at Milwaukee at the same time the results will be out. I'm torn. I will probably put the game on mute while watching politics.
Hillary's strategy seems to have transformed into an "I really do think you're stupid" strategy. I'm done.
Well, I would confine my nastiness to Hillary and surrogates.
There simply s no valid reason to attack "the Media" or 538 for that matter.
I mean, disagree, criticize, whatever you want it is all good. I just don't believe it is meaningful at the end of the day. The media and 538 are what they are. They exist as independent entities trying to make buck. Some are good, some are bad. Whatever. The thought that they are driving the election bus is nonsense, especially if you imply or insinuate that they are working for Hillary. Because they aren't. Clearly. And I would say Nate Silver and probably his professional (mostly) white young liberal workers are all feeling the bern in their personal lives.
Social media now that's a different animal.
And I disagree that negativity equals sadness. It can be correlative for sure. But I am not suffering from depression at all. LOL. Too busy to be depressed.
To busy to spell check too. Sorry about that.
And no, I think comment threads are great. The real meat and potatoes of DFQ2 are in the threads.
I just went back a few days ago and re-read my Terrorism Inc schtick and the thread was really masterful on both our parts.
The media does matter. They cover up the extent of the Clinton corruption. Fox and Turner give money to Hillary.
I never said Nate was a political operative. I coined a new phrase. He is a paid useful idiot.
I do agree with you I overemphasise 538 as some influence. You underrate the influence of the mainstream media.
It's looking good for Bernie. The results should start coming in soon.
Harry Belafonte is endorsing Bernie.
I'm drinking coffee. I want to so bad predict the numbers and get it exactly. 36%?
68-32?
Maybe not Turner. Time- Warner or CNN or someone from them gives bribes. It's bribery, I must say. And there's something weird called push polling. Hillary and the neoliberals are nasty.
Hillary thinks people are stupid. I bet she despises Jeanette. Steinem hates Jeanette. Albright says she will burn in hell. It's ridiculous.
Fricken.
Chris Matthews has Asperger's. Bet on it.
What else? I need some vote results. The coffee isn't working.
So the Celtics will be on mute and I have on MSNBC for coverage.
I should find PBS or C-Span. I blew it. These guys are killing me. Chris Matthews drives me nuts.
The realistic pro-Bernie prediction would say a win by 12%.
Haha, I was going to say that sure is 538 going out on an edge predicting Bern wins NH.
And they got Iowa completely wrong. There was a scandal in Iowa. Bernie won that state. There would have been a recount if it mattered that much.
Yes, I googled and BladBlog is on it. Send him a donation. There's nothing weird that he became famous as the front man for BK. Nothing odd about that at all. I think Brad might be CIA. I recall tracking down some info on him. He can fake five accents. The plausible deniabvility is that he was an actor. And Elon is a comedian. And I'm fricken Joe from Palookaville. And I'm done.
21%?
It's like a basketball game. Hillary doesn't want to get blown out. Bernie should have this game finished by midway through the first quarter. A big Bernie win would be a win for me. I'm talking 30 to 40%. 25 would be nice. Even 20. Even 15 would be a solid win but Enten has that as the expectations point spread. 15% win by Bern would be a draw to Enten.
Maybe I should predict every possible number, then delete the posts with the wrong predictions? What would Hillary do?
It's early, but MSNBC has already declared Trump and Bernie the winners. Bernie has a 14% lead. If that holds, on the surface Enten wins. But he keeps harping away with his form of racism. Let's see what now happens in Nevada and South Carolina, and especially March 1st.
We should have taken fake donations in order to add fake columnists for this very exciting election. We got overwhelmed by real history in real time. Thankfully we brought in buddhism and I see people stealing out shite all the time.
On t.v. earlier they spoke of zen, no lying. Someone also said that Hillary would rather have SC before Nevada. I said that months ago.
The nuclear option for Enten are the super delegate votes. So we do most certainly have to shatter the lily-white anomaly state ceiling.
The fight is on. 538 made their coronation bed to sleep in.
Oh, it's come out that reporters have been taking bribes from Hillary's campaign, but you say the media has no influence. It came out in some of the emails, and I read about it at the Gawker website you mock.
I should write up a blog entry on the Twitter sock puppet thingie and on stuff like this media people found writing articles based on what the Clintons say in return for copies of speeches, interviews/whatnot, shite like that.
But to you it doesn't matter. They are a reflection. Whatever, my friend.
Oh, I have the C's on after all. They are toying with the Bucks at Milwaukee.
aaah, now it is 57-41, Bernie. We want 20% plus at least. Anything other than what Enten said. I'm not a big fan of Harry Enten. Maybe I've mentioned that before.
So will Bernie win Nevada? What will happen in SC? How will the delegate landscape look on March 2nd? Can Bernie end up with more delegates than Hillary and enough to make super delegates pointless? Could things get weird by the end, or will Bern or H. soon assert themselves? These questions and more, next time on DFQ2 Talks Politics & Zeitgeist Sniffing.
Zeitgeist sniffing won. The polls weren't close. One or two polling companies came out looking good compared to the rest, but they still got it wrong. The numbers are at real clear politics. This was a huge win for Bernie.
lol. Not sure about Enten, but the polls were on target on the dem side. 538 called it an easy win for Bernie and it was.
Your polls are obsolete theory isn't really holding water. The idea isn't that the percentages have to be called exactly. The winner has to be called exactly and that is what happened 2 states in a row on the Dem side, a rather rare occurrence because polls are traditionally off in Iowa and NH.
That makes 2 states in a row 538 called. Nuff said about polls. My advice would be to drop your polls are obsolete schtick, at least until y'know, the polls are off. You aren't looking prescient on this point. Sorry to say.
Clearly, this isn't Britain's election fiasco or anywhere close.
And the polling will become more precise as some candidates drop out and the electorates in the remaining states start to form opinions of their preferences.
I know, I know, there was voter fraud in Iowa and all that.
Needs to be proven. Bernie needs to challenge the result if he believes there was fraud.
I haven't seen him challenge the results at all. If he doesn't go after it then there is no there there. And you are relying on tin foil theory at that point if you hang your hat against polling on the unproved assumption that Bernie won Iowa.
If indeed there is a challenge and results overturned then you will win the Zeitgeist Award for boldness. For now, your trophy is made of Reynolds Wrap.
But I mean that in the nicest way possible and with all due respect.
You care and that is what matters.
Bernie fulfilled out prediction for the first two states.
he is standing on 50/50 today. The next two contests are now hugely important. No he doesn't necessarily need wins but he needs to outperform expectations with the minority vote. If that happens it will be time to change the odds in his favor.
There you go again. There was no raw vote total in Iowa. Is that so difficult to grok? All we have are the percentage totals for delegates. I am not sure why you miss this basic point. There are even articles proving
As for the NH results, 538 wasn't even close.
538 is 0-2.
You continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. Instead of admitting you have no clue because you don't have the time to follow things closely, you support full of shite fake journalists and ideas.
Maybe if you spent more time researching and reflecting, instead of making knee-jerk contrarian posts, this wouldn't get so awkward at times.
It gets very stale whenever you retreat to the smoke and mirror schtick.
You say the polls got it right in Iowa, yet you can't prove it or do not attend to the essence of there being no raw vote totals. You stick up for David Brock styled smears on Bernie, unwittingly of course. You say the media has no influence or wtf. My job isn't to debate with someone who does no research, but like Hillary, wants us trust what is said.
You seem to be strung along like a puppet by the medium. Bernie last night in his victory speech looked right into the camera and spoke truth directly to the mainstream media. But to you, there is no problem and this is all conspiracy thinking. Whatever. Yawn. Sorry, but yawn. There, I yawned and said it.
Young people are using their vote as a form of protest. This is happening to such an extent that the racist Southern strategy Hillary, 538, and yourself continue to promote is starting to pale in significance. Much has changed. I do not believe the Black vote is in Hillary's back pocket. The only thing keeping such an idea flowing are Hillary, 538, rotten discredited polls, and yourself, who seems to be more interested in debunking me than in learning and evolving as a comrade in the political blogging revolution.
What does believing Bernie might have won the popular vote in Iowa from 10%-20% have to do with conspiracy theories?
Either put in the work or stfu?
Bernie definitely now has the edge. The nook in the cranny are the super delegates. Bernie gained four delegates last night. Sure, there will be bigger states, and if the Bernie Movement is real, he will amass a greater edge. He needs to amass an amount of delegates that turns the super delegates into a non-factor. Otherwise, it could get extremely ugly in this country if the DNC steals the nomination in the Summer.
Your comments reflect one dimensional cardboard. Research? LOL
This is why my erudition doesn't fit in with your new age fried botism during election season.
In yet another blow to your failed fantasy league schtick, Ta-Nehisi Coates endorses Sanders. Score another win for donkeytale prescience. You are now officially reeling and gasping for relevance with a string of recent fails.
http://www.democracynow.org/2016/2/10/ta_nehisi_coates_is_voting_for
Your discussion of the polls is laughable. Absurd. I know it's hard to swallow but the truth shall set you free. The polls in Iowa and NH, the two hardest to predict primary/caucuses were simply not obsolete. Period. Sorry. Sometimes you should just admit you were wrong and move onto more fertile ground.
The media did not coronate Hillary. She is 0-1-1 to date. Blaming the media is just dumb cliché material and beside any point worth making. Taking credit for social media is the equal and opposite stupidity. Both sides still suck.
The best defense for you is an offense wrapped in tin foil. Keep refighting Iowa. Keep deliriously daydreaming your "Southern strategy" attack on me. LOL. Tha's a good one Lucy, pulled as it is outta the left field of your ass.
You crack me up. As a rookie in the political woods you should be sent down to the Maine Lobster Claws of the D League to work on adding some substance to replace your tin foil fail.
You've managed to fritter away a solid zeitgeist win.
Take a deep breath and relax. I'm done.
When someone like you consistently posts garbage month after month and is found out to be wrong each time, there becomes no point in debating. You are so intellectually dishonest, that one might as well debate Hillary Clinton or David Brock.
Coates is voting for Bernie. I saw that before you ever did. It still doesn't change the fact that he smeared Bernie in his reparations article.
You're the self-centered d_ _ _h_ _ _ who said "national security" was swinging the election. I said it was the economy, stupid. Who is looking stupid?
You often don't appear as much less than neoliberal scum than a lot of other people.
Maybe take some more "higher education" classes on Marx, Mr. Moron Capitalist Pig?
Some anon coward capitalist pig from Texas claims there is no problem with the media or polls. Right above he yet again ignored the fact there is no raw vote total in Iowa.
He claims I am trying to relive Iowa and peddle conspiracy theories.
I couldn't care less about donkeytale at this point.
There is no popular vote info on Iowa. So how did 538 get Iowa correct? How is predicting a Bernie win in NH accurate when they never predicted it would be a rout? How was predicting a Hillary win in Iowa accurate when it ended up tied?
I thought one objective was to follow polls and then see whether they are obsolete. Donkeytale claims Iowa proves they are accurate despite there being no data to look at.
This is intellectual dishonesty 101. I try to not waste too much time with this sort of confused troll who debunks himself.
Kevin Gosztola @kgosztola 15m15 minutes ago
"More than 90 percent of the media is owned by just six companies" http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34789-democracy-in-peril-twenty-years-of-media-consolidation-under-the-telecommunications-act
Donkeytale says there is no media conspiracy.
"What is most revealing when analyzing the donation patterns of these industries in the data from the Center for Responsive Politics - be it cable television, print and periodicals, radio or telecom services - is that Hillary Clinton is, by far, the largest recipient of donations of any candidate in the 2016 election in either party. In fact, of all the top industries that have donated to Clinton, the TV/movies/music category ranks behind only the securities and investments category. (This data is from reports filed on January 31, 2016, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.)
More troubling is that these filings come on the heels of a report from Politico that the Clinton Foundation has received donations, some of them very large, from most of all the major media companies directly: Viacom, News Corporation, Reuters, NBCUniversal, Newsmax, Time Warner, Mort Zuckerman (owner of US News &World Report and the New York Daily News), Comcast, AOL Huffington Post Media and Robert Allbritton (owner of Politico). George Stephanopoulos, one of ABC News' most visible journalist and a former staffer for President Clinton, has also been under scrutiny for not disclosing a $75,000 donation to the foundation."
LOL. Read what I wrote, not what you are hallucinating, about the polss vis a vis Iowa.
Remove your tin foil glasses first.
Also, I did not say there is or isn't a "media conspiracy." I said it does't matter. People aren't as stupid and gullible as you believe them to be. The Media didn't win NH for Hillary.
In fact, Mr. schtick theft, I coined the term "The Medium is the Conspiracy." Looked at a certain way, everything I a conspiracy in global capitalism. That is my point. Yours is just repeating, tiredly, one I've made for decades. This is also Marxist schtick for centuries now.
Your growing anti-intellectualism and lack of reading comprehension is what grows boring.
Henry. Kissinger.
It does matter because Bernie has to either win by a landslide or somehow make sure Hillary doesn't steal it through super delegates.
Bernie is truly up against it.
A new poll says it is tied at 45 in Nevada.
I am keeping track of real delegate stats.
Iowa was bad luck because it is 44 delegates. Say Hillary won by .3%, why did she receive a 23-21 win?
Bernie won NH 15-9.
To sum up, it's apparently Bernie 36 Hillary 32.
Next you'll tell me the NBA refs don't matter?
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